Johor looks set to be the swing state in GE14: Analysis

source: WorldFutureTV

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On Feb 13, 2018

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“Our estimates on the number of seats won are ‘best-case’ scenarios based on a simple formula instead of election simulations. Simulations would be more accurate and reliable,” said the analysis.

From our observations on Twitter since 2015, young Malays (aged 21-30 years) in Johor are more likely to express support for UMNO compared to young Malays in other states.

The Analysis

In summary...

1.

Mahathir’s party the Bersatu and PKR are contesting the most difficult seats to win a straight fight.
2.

The impact of PAS contesting against PH in 3-corner fights needs to be overcome by PH by winning votes from pro-BN voters, and surely from PAS supporters
3.

PH likely needs to target more than a 10-point swing to win Johor in addition to neutralising the effect of PAS by winning over pro-BN voters
4.

UMNO has a large share of exclusive interest on Facebook, making it more difficult for PH and Tun Mahathir to spread their message.

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