LIST: 6 tips on predicting Oscar outcomes
LIST: 6 tips on predicting Oscar outcomes
By The Signal Co-Managing Editor Emily Wolfe
With the Academy Awards on Feb. 24, check out these easy tricks on figuring out what and who will win on Oscar night.
By The Signal Co-Managing Editor Emily Wolfe
With the Academy Awards on Feb. 24, check out these easy tricks on figuring out what and who will win on Oscar night.
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1. Get rid of biases. Think like a critic
Honestly the best trick in picking what will win? Forgetting what you have liked from the nominees in previous years. Even if Christian Bale is your favorite actor or you did not like Rami Malek because he was in a "Twilight" film, forget the past because Oscar voters usually do not care what nominees did prior to that year. They are not oblivious, but your preferences do not impact their decision at all.
2. Look at prediction websites
Websites like awardswatch.com and goldderby.com are the standard in predicting award outcomes. These sites are active year round and give early indications of what will be nominated for the Golden Globes and Academy Awards. Gold Derby uses a mix of editors, experts and users to rank the chances of each nominee. Awards Watch posts news and allows for an easy viewing of what film won previous awards.
3. Look at earlier winners
Films typically do not win (or get nominated) out of the blue, winners and nominees for previous films tend to be the front runners for the Academy Awards.
4. Know the players
A general rule is that first time nominees do not win. The Academy Award race is played between nominees and studios and they try to "woo" the voters into voting a particular way. First time nominees usually do not have the connections or a studio backing to influence the voters. It has happened before, but veterans of award season tend to gain momentum here and that is usually enough to tip them across the finish line.
5. Check out whisper campaigns
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You do not need to know exactly what is being said or who is being affected by these whisper campaigns, just know they are there. Whisper campaigns tend to attack front runners and can be extremely difficult when trying to figure out where they are coming from. Just be aware that if two films are the front runners for Best Picture, whisper campaigns can allow for a third film to take the prize.
6. See the films
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Honestly, the most important factor in deciding what will win is to actually see the films nominated. In tight races, gut instinct is just as important as looking at the above tips.
Overall, some times winners seem to come out of the blue. For example, when Marisa Tomei won for "My Cousin Vinny" in 1992, she defied all of the above rules. Only those who had seen the film would have even given her a second look.