Najib predicted to retain power in GE14 through significant vote buying: Kroll
Najib predicted to retain power in GE14 through significant vote buying: Kroll
The ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party is predicted to retain the majority
The ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party is predicted to retain the majority
Kroll, a corporate investigations and risk consulting firm, said in a report on Malaysia’s upcoming elections that PM Najib Razak is predicted to retain power.
kroll, a corporate investigations and risk consulting firm, said in a report on Malaysia’s upcoming elections that PM Najib Razak is predicted to retain power after the 14th General Elections (GE14), that is expected to be held in the first quarter of this year.
“Political analysts overall agree that it remains likely that UMNO and its allied parties will retain a majority in parliament, albeit possibly with a reduced popular vote.
“PH faces several obstacles, including an electoral boundary shift which strongly favours the incumbents and bickering within the PH camp on which seats to contest.
Pakatan Harapan or PH, consisting of the People’s Justice Party (“PKR”), the Democratic Action Party (“DAP”), and Parti Amanah Negara (“Amanah”) as well as Bersatu.
Observers should closely monitor the role of the Malaysian Islamic Party (“PAS”) which is neither part of PH nor UMNO’s alliance and is seen as a “kingmaker” in upcoming elections.
Kroll Report
But it said this will happen through significant “vote-buying” exercises.
“If past elections are any indication, there will be significant “vote-buying” exercises where exposed companies may be instructed to donate to UMNO-related causes.”
Nonetheless, investors should be aware of elevated fraud and corruption risks in the lead-up to the election, especially when dealing with politically sensitive or heavily unionised industries, and sectors which are rural-focused.
The manufacturing, aviation, plantations, and agriculture sectors would be of key concern. The ruling coalition will depend strongly on votes from workers in these industries, said the report.
Such politically-linked donations come with attendant risks; often foreign investors in exposed Malaysian companies are unaware that such donations are being made, or the potential impact these donations could have on their day-to-day business operations.
The report also said unconfirmed rumours put the GE14 during the school holidays in mid-late March (as schools are repurposed as polling stations in Malaysia). Nomura, a leading Japanese financial services institution, predicted that the election would be held between March and May.
Former PM Mahathir Mohamad
On the opposition chances, Kroll said former PM Mahathir Mohamad’s brand-name recognition is likely to give the opposition alliance a strong boost in rural areas, which is a major support base for UMNO.
“However, Mahathir’s party Bersatu, formed only in late 2016 and a constituent member of PH, is untested. Observers have doubts about whether Bersatu will be able to wrest a sufficient number of seats in rural areas from UMNO.
Anwar Ibrahim, the de facto leader of PKR
“Separately, Anwar Ibrahim, the de facto leader of the opposition, is scheduled to be released from prison in June 2018, from what the UN Human Rights Council deemed politically motivated sodomy charges,” it said.
The white paper report is available here.