Can the Congress stage a comeback in Lok Sabha elections 2019

In 2013, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had stated when India would be a computer, and then your Congress was its default program. The statement was broadly panned for betraying the feudal mindset from the Congress. But honestly, he wasn’t remote the objective. Until 2013, the Congress had lost national power just three occasions: 1977, 1989 and 1996. On a couple of individual’s occasions, it maintained a really healthy election share of 39.5% (1989) and 34.5% (1977). A non-Congress government completed its first full term only in 2004-a complete 57 years after independence. With no non-Congress government has ever completed two consecutive full terms yet.

Exactly what the Narendra Modi government is going to be wishing to attain in 2019 elections is thus unparalleled. In 2004, nobody gave any opportunity to the Congress: the party was, like today, at its cheapest-ever ebb of 114 seats along with a popular pm in Atal Bihari Vajpayee was seeking re-election. The Congress bounced back, upstaging the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) inside a close fight in 2004 and widening the margin in '09. Can the grand old party India have faith from 2004 and stage a powerful comeback in 2019?

To reply to this, one should read the performance from the Congress in 2 periods: a) 1952-84 and b) 1989-2014. The very first period was certainly the time of the Congress to be the default operating-system of Indian politics. Despite the fact that its election share fluctuated from a low of 34.5% (1977) along with a a lot of 48.1% (1984), the popularity line was always above 40%. However the second period saw a high decline, both when it comes to election share and seat share.

2004 wasn't the very best comeback performance from the Congress. In 1980, it'd elevated its election share by 8.2 percentage points, and was able to boost its seat tally by 199. However that was since the Janata Party, the Congress’s primary rival, had disintegrated completely between 1977 and 1980. It's highly unlikely the Congress will get this type of windfall in 2019. The greater indicators would be the Lok Sabha elections in 1971, 1984 and 2009, once the Congress elevated its seats tally by 69, 62 and 61 seats, correspondingly. A rise of roughly 70 seats in 2019 will just reduce the margin of BJP victory.

Four points have to be stored in your mind while assessing the likelihood of a powerful Congress revival in 2019 elections. One, the very first time in publish-independence history, the nation's election share from the Congress has fallen below 20%. Throughout its dominance (1952-84), its election share never fell below 34%. Even between 1984 and 2009, its election share never fell below 25%. The Congress is within uncharted waters, with a brand new captain leading the ship. Can Rahul Gandhi help his party tide within the rough waters?

Two, the BJP presently has more condition legislators compared to Congress. It is extremely entirely possible that the default operating-system of Indian politics has altered. If that's the case, will the Congress now arrived at power only episodically, much like its rivals did within the first couple of decades after independence?
Three, the Congress’s best comebacks (with the exception of 1980) haven’t entered 70 seats. But as it is operating from the really low base, it ought to, and may, strive for an increase of something similar to 100 seats.

Four, also for that Congress is to obtain the opposition together to battle the BJP. When the illustration of the Bihar elections (2015) is anything to put into practice, the arithmetic of the u . s . opposition can make difficulties for Modi’s re-election bid. However the lack of ability to craft an identical opposition alliance in Uttar Pradesh (2017), Nitish Kumar’s defection towards the BJP-brought National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and also the decision from the Communist Party asia (Marxist), or CPM, not to initiate an alliance using the Congress for that 2019 elections, imply that the BJP is less worried of computer might have been.

The BJP will discover it very hard to repeat its 2014 performance in states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Increases from states within the North-East and individuals like West Bengal and Odisha might not be enough to bridge the deficit within the north and also the west. It'll bank upon a divided opposition cannibalizing itself not to fall much below its 2014 tally of 282 seats.
A loss of revenue in Karnataka for that BJP will definitely add impetus towards the already prevalent speculation concerning the prospects of the early Lok Sabha election.

The BJP’s greatest fear is going to be that losing power in even two three major states-Karnataka, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh-likely to polls this season can create momentum towards the Congress. A loss of revenue in Karnataka for that BJP will definitely add impetus towards the already prevalent speculation concerning the prospects of the early Lok Sabha election. Then, we already have murmurs that the poor showing through the BJP often leads it to select a pm apart from Modi to draw in the needed quantity of coalition partners.

The Congress will need to change the phrase victory within the 2019 elections. Whether it seems to restrict the BJP to some number (200 or fewer) in which the latter cannot form a government or can build a government just with another pm, Gandhi might have something to celebrate. His may not be the default operating-system of Indian politics, but he is able to justifiably declare that the BJP isn't there yet.
What are the prospects for the Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election.