The Arkadag's Son Becomes a Politician

The corridors of power
There're news which allow to cast a different glance to the political life of Turkmenistan. The parliamentary elections are going to happen, and that's why we noticed a new rising star on the political Olympus of the republic. Lots of political analysts predict the Arkadag's son Serdar will occupy the post of the Speaker of Parliament. In other words, he becomes the second person in the state. Is this good or bad?

Political growth of the president's offspring was noticed a year ago when he started to change one leading position after another with a visible progress. It wasn't a casual thing that his careful father decided to move up him so obviously. In that fact a factor of president's mistrust to his coterie is shown as well as a desire to have a plan B just in case.

At this point the experience of some former Central Asian and Caucasian Republics where the top figure in the state acts on the principle of the hereditable power and prepares his children to be the successors is worth to be noticed. We'd bring you the examples of Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan.

Heydar Aliyev's son Ilham Aliev rules in Baku. In Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon actively puts forward into the power his son Rustam. But to be honest, the latter doesn't grow so fast as Serdar, occupying one post or another for several years. The experience of Turkmen successor in a new leading position is measured in months.

The Tadjik leader is an interesting example in the ex-Soviet area. Emomali Rahmon who has the biggest quantity of children among the Presidents started a tradition of designating high officials' children and relatives to important state posts. In Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov wasn't blessed to have sons. Two daughters of the Uzbek President didn't encroach to the power in the Republic. Actually, here the head of the state wasn't overthrown and fell peacefully asleep in the Lord. After some interesting schemes were realized the power in Tashkent was taken by Karimov's Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Having come into power he made a point of starting an exile of the old staff. He started with the institutions, executing on behalf of the state the highest control of the observance of legislation. Mirziyoyev declared to the Uzbek public that prosecution office had to be cleaned off the staff which had started to work during Karimov's presidency. The new President noted the public prosecutors were the 'main thieves' that remained from the old trash system. By the way, his first foreign visit as the leader of the Uzbek was to Turkmenistan, where he met our President.

In Central Asia and in the Caucasus such a tradition of the heredity of the power allows protect the life of the leader of the state after his possible retirement. That's why the former President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akayev is obliged to live in Russia, being afraid of possible persecution. The ex-leaders of Georgia prefer to leave the country too. Actually, Europe isn't an exception. It's enough to recall the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's sad experience of the escape from Kiev. The ongoing leader of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow in case of the loss of power will unlikely get a respectful relation of the successors even they will be his associates. And the reaction of the opposition will be pretty obvious.

For this very reason the President's only son Serdar (sorry for tautologism) is his unique go-to. It may sound strange taking in account my critical perspective to both role and place of Berdimuhamedow in political life of Turkmenistan but I wouldn't be hasty in the appeals to overthrow the current government. Let us not forget that traditions in Central Asia are cruel and sometimes cynic. As I've mentioned in the example of neighbor Uzbekistan, a new leader is used to eliminating cruelly the old staff. Not only the officials suffer from the purge but also the whole nation which gets obliged to go through the times of changes, new rules of life that aren't always fair. New people in the power intent to make up for lost opportunities and try hard to watch over their own interests.

Our times are critical for Turkmenistan. Year 2018 has to go by under the motto 'Turkmenistan is the Heart of the Silk Road'. First of all, it means for us transport and transit systems among which the first place is occupied by petroleum and gas pipeline systems. Lots of people have heard about such projects like TAPI, TUTAP, TAP500. They're important segments of the Silk Road. The gas is the main monetary product. But we do bear in mind the difficulties that our country is facing. The national currency manat isn't totally ok. During the previous year we didn't hear about foreign companies' investments to Turkmenistan. Foreign partners hold off on investing into the Republic because of the uncertainty. Russia hasn't yet clarified her position on the import of the Turkmen gas in 2018. Iran stubbornly continues staying on his groundless position on the debt service payments to Turkmenistan. Today China is the only gas buyer. However, we make them a discount in repayment of debts of crediting the gas pipeline construction. The slowdown of our economy's growth is associated with the crash of gas and oil prices in the world, the global bank and financial crisis, and the default. It's important that all these phenomena go in sequence.

We expect some progress in the relationships with Iran, and we've already linked it with the would-be visit of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Ashgabat. This topic was discussed during the talks with the Iranian delegation in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan. Some agreements appeared on the possibility of involving Iranian companies and business into the project that is being realized in Turkmenistan. They include the entry of new Iranian technological developments to the Turkmenian marketplace as well as the start of cooperation in this sphere. The debt question on gas will likely be solved by the International Court of Arbitration. So, we hope the decision will be upheld in favor of Turkmenistan.

A separate conversation is about the relationship with Russia. Moscow today is living the bustle of the upcoming presidential elections. This, in particular, explains a certain inhibition of relations between the two countries since the end of the previous year. However, no one doubts the victory in the election of the current president Vladimir Putin. Actually, it is good for us. A proven reliable partner as Russia and President Putin is important to Turkmenistan. In addition, Putin's last speech to the Russian Federal Assembly showed that Russia is stronger than ever today. Economically and militarily, the power of Moscow is hardly worth disputing. Such a strong ally for Turkmenistan is good in all respects. This is still relevant in connection with the talk about possible interference of the United States in the internal affairs of Turkmenistan. The press spread information that Washington was seriously considering the use of NATO troops to ensure the safety of Turkmen gas pipelines. Such a scenario is developed in case of possible aggravation of the crisis and social explosion in the republic. The fact that the US State Department can not only take advantage of the case, but also provoke such a situation is proved by the examples of Libya, Ukraine, Iraq, Egypt and many other countries. I am sure, friendly relations between Turkmenistan and Russia are able to cool the hot heads in the Pentagon.

But let us return to Berdimuhamedow and his plans to delegate power to his son. It is the best way out and strategy for the president in critical time for the country. However, one should not think that the clan of the current leader will rule forever. Arkadag himself does not need a weak state. He's interested in strong Turkmenistan. It's more comfortable for the government to live in a strong country with a prosperous economy. Democratic transformations are not so painful and there are some security guarantees for the first persons after retirement in a stable, rich and strong country. However, it's already another topic, which journalists and political experts will discuss in their articles over and over again. Today we will follow the political career of Serdar Berdimuhamedow and we will wait for the results of the parliamentary elections, and the next first session of the Senate during which the issue of electing its chairman will be discussed.